Macro Backdrop · Q1 2026
AI Hyperscaler Ecosystem
The institutional intelligence layer for the AI infrastructure supercycle — tracking the suppliers whose order books prove the buildout is funded, not just guided.
12 categories82 companiesTier 1 · 28
Constellation View · Click to Explore
AI Infrastructure Bottleneck Map
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Data Flow
Model Flow
Feedback
Control Plane
Demand-Side Tracker
Hyperscaler Capex · CY 2026
Third consecutive year of 60%+ growth — an industrial supercycle, not a product cycle.
Combined
$757.5B
+60% YoY
Demand Curve
US DC Grid Power · 2025 → 2030
451 Research forecast · doubling in 5 years; AI-optimized servers nearly 5x.
By 2030
134.4 GW
+118% vs 2025
Total DC grid demand (GW)451 Research
61.8 GW
2025
75.8 GW
2026
91 GW
2027
108 GW
2028
121 GW
2029
134.4 GW
2030
AI-optimized servers (TWh, Gartner)93 → 432 TWh by 2030
Worldwide DC (Gartner)
448 → 980 TWh
AI server share
21% → 44%
Capex growth (3 yrs)
3 × 60%+ YoY
Constraint Index
Where the Money Hits the Wall
Higher = tighter supply
Baseload Funding Model
Hyperscaler-Nuclear PPAs
20-year, take-or-pay-style contracts with investment-grade counterparties — the closest thing to bond-like cash flows in equities.
Aggregate
~10.0 GW
7 deals signed
Ecosystem Feed · Live
TSMC raises 2026 capex to upper end of $52–56B range
2h agoQ1 2026 revenue $35.89B (+40.6% YoY USD); HPC now 61% of revenue
FoundryVertiv backlog jumps to $12.45B (~+80.8% YoY)
6h agoQ4 2025 $15.0B with 2.9x book-to-bill · FY26 guide raised to $13.5–14.0B
CoolingMeta + Oklo: 1.2 GW SMR deal at Pike County OH
1d agoTargeted commissioning ~2030 · Joins MSFT/Constellation, AWS/Talen wave
SMRIREN secures $9.7B Microsoft GPU cloud deal (5-yr)
1d agoChildress TX GB300 deployment · 20% prepay $1.9B + $3.6B GPU financing closed
HPC PivotMicron FQ2 2026: $23.86B revenue +196% YoY
2d ago2026 HBM sold out · HBM4 ramps Q2 2026 · Run-rate ~$8B
MemoryGoodman + CPP Investments A$14B European DC JV
3d agoInitial A$3.9B / 282 MW across Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam
DC REITCipher Mining: $5.5B AWS + $3B Fluidstack/Google leases
5d ago300 MW + 168 MW at Barber Lake · 1 GW Colchis JV in West Texas
HPC PivotASML 2026 guidance raised to €36–40B
1w agoQ1 net sales €8.8B · GM 53% · €4.1B EUV incl 2 High-NA
Litho12 Category Map
The Bottleneck Stack
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Bottleneck Basket
Stage 1 · Highest Conviction Tier 1
Names where Q1 2026 primary-source backlog and order data prove the buildout is funded, not just guided.
10 picks · core
Decision-Ready Recommendations
Staged Allocation Framework
Five risk-graded baskets — from the core bottleneck names that are funded and shipping, to the long-tail SMR/uranium/mining-pivot optionality that requires multi-year regulatory milestones.
Full Ecosystem
All Companies · 111 tracked
TierStage
111 result(s)
| Company | Ticker | Market | Category | Tier | Key Metric | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Constellation Energy🇺🇸NASDAQ | CEG | $288.69-4.27% | Power | T1 | 55 GWCombined Capacity | |
Vistra Corp🇺🇸NYSE | VST | $160.15-2.68% | Power | T1 | 2,609 MWMeta PPA | |
Talen Energy🇺🇸NASDAQ | TLN | $379.68-2.40% | Power | T1 | 1,920 MWAWS PPA Cap | |
GE Vernova🇺🇸NYSE | GEV | $1,032-3.60% | Power | T1 | $163.3BTotal Backlog | |
Williams Companies🇺🇸NYSE | WMB | $74.37-2.58% | Power | T2 | PipelinesSub-thesis | |
Siemens Energy🇪🇺XETRA / OTC | ENR.DE | €174.36-3.83% | Power | T1 | €39.1BFY25 Revenue | |
BWX Technologies🇺🇸NYSE | BWXT | $198.95-2.66% | Power | T2 | $860.2MQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Oklo🇺🇸NYSE | OKLO | $67.82-1.28% | Power | T3 | 1.2 GWMeta Deal | |
NuScale Power🇺🇸NYSE | SMR | $12.07-1.23% | Power | T3 | 77 MWeApproved Design | |
Centrus Energy🇺🇸NYSEAM | LEU | $180.13-1.76% | Power | T3 | $900MDOE Task Order | |
Cameco🇺🇸NYSE / TSX | CCJ | $107.44-0.67% | Power | T2 | $845MQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Kazatomprom🌐LSE | KAP | $74.70+5.36% | Power | T3 | 71.5–75.4 Mlbs2026 Production | |
Quanta Services🇺🇸NYSE | PWR | $733.62-1.15% | Grid | T1 | $7.87BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Eaton Corp🇺🇸NYSE | ETN | $406.37+0.80% | Grid | T1 | $7.5BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
nVent Electric🇺🇸NYSE | NVT | $167.80-0.88% | Grid | T1 | $1.24BQ1 2026 Sales | |
Hitachi Energy🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 6501.T | ¥5,056+0.04% | Grid | T2 | $19.8BFY25 Revenue | |
HD Hyundai Electric🇰🇷KRX | 267260.KS | ₩1,094,000-0.09% | Grid | T1 | $5.4B+Q3 2025 Backlog | |
Hyosung Heavy Industries🇰🇷KRX | 298040.KS | ₩3,681,000+2.82% | Grid | T1 | ₩4.175TQ1 2026 New Orders | |
Schneider Electric🇪🇺Euronext / OTC | SU.PA | €268.95-1.56% | Grid | T2 | €40.2BFY25 Revenue | |
ABB Ltd🇪🇺SIX / NYSE | ABBN.SW | 83.68+2.88% | Grid | T1 | $8.73BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Prysmian🇪🇺Borsa Italiana / OTC | PRY.MI | €146.50+1.45% | Grid | T2 | €5.2BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Legrand🇪🇺Euronext / OTC | LR.PA | €149.60-2.57% | Grid | T2 | €9.48BFY25 Revenue | |
Hubbell🇺🇸NYSE | HUBB | $484.25+1.30% | Grid | T2 | T&D ComponentsFocus | |
MYR Group🇺🇸NASDAQ | MYRG | $471.99+1.65% | Grid | T2 | Grid constructionFocus | |
Powell Industries🇺🇸NASDAQ | POWL | $295.94+1.36% | Grid | T2 | DC switchgearFocus | |
SPX Technologies🇺🇸NYSE | SPXC | $215.34-1.71% | Grid | T2 | T&DFocus | |
Vertiv🇺🇸NYSE | VRT | $319.78-1.28% | Cooling | T1 | $2.65BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Modine Manufacturing🇺🇸NYSE | MOD | $279.93-5.39% | Cooling | T1 | $738.9MQ2 FY26 Net Sales | |
Trane Technologies🇺🇸NYSE | TT | $457.68-0.81% | Cooling | T2 | ~$500MStellar Acq 2026 Rev | |
Parker Hannifin🇺🇸NYSE | PH | $856.68-1.31% | Cooling | T2 | Liquid coolingFocus | |
Daikin Industries🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 6367.T | ¥23,135-5.46% | Cooling | T3 | HVACFocus | |
Johnson Controls🇺🇸NYSE | JCI | $138.20-1.44% | Cooling | T3 | HVACFocus | |
Asetek🇪🇺Oslo | ASETEK | 1.71+0.23% | Cooling | T3 | Liquid coolingFocus | |
Micron Technology🇺🇸NASDAQ | MU | $928.41+3.63% | Memory | T1 | $23.86BFQ2 2026 Revenue | |
SK Hynix🇰🇷KRX | 000660.KS | ₩2,243,000+28.54% | Memory | T1 | 57–62%HBM Share (3Q25) | |
Samsung Electronics🇰🇷KRX / OTC | 005930.KS | ₩307,000+11.43% | Memory | T1 | 17–35%HBM Share | |
Amkor Technology🇺🇸NASDAQ | AMKR | $72.19-1.73% | Memory | T2 | OSATFocus | |
ASE Technology🇹🇼NYSE | ASX | $39.07+0.31% | Memory | T2 | OSATFocus | |
Advantest🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 6857.T | ¥26,075-6.05% | Memory | T1 | ¥478BH1 FY25 Sales | |
Teradyne🇺🇸NASDAQ | TER | $376.06-3.36% | Memory | T2 | ATEFocus | |
Arista Networks🇺🇸NYSE | ANET | $154.31-2.34% | Networking | T1 | $2.709BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Astera Labs🇺🇸NASDAQ | ALAB | $325.32+2.07% | Networking | T1 | $308.4MQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Broadcom🇺🇸NASDAQ | AVGO | $421.86-0.04% | Networking | T1 | 10 GWOpenAI Commitment | |
Marvell Technology🇺🇸NASDAQ | MRVL | $198.75-4.57% | Networking | T1 | ~$8.2BFY2026 Revenue | |
Coherent🇺🇸NYSE | COHR | $380.18-0.31% | Networking | T1 | 400 Gbps/laneTechnology | |
Lumentum🇺🇸NASDAQ | LITE | $901.99-0.97% | Networking | T1 | $222MQ2 FY26 Systems Rev | |
Fabrinet🇺🇸NYSE | FN | $686.90+0.90% | Networking | T1 | $1.214BQ3 FY26 Revenue | |
Credo Technology🇺🇸NASDAQ | CRDO | $221.44-0.09% | Networking | T1 | ~$340M midpointFY26 Q3 Guide | |
Zhongji Innolight🇨🇳SZSE | 300308.SZ | ¥1,111+11.88% | Networking | T1 | RMB 10.2B3Q25 Revenue | |
Eoptolink🇨🇳SZSE | 300502.SZ | ¥695.00+22.79% | Networking | T2 | ¥8.65BFY2024 Revenue | |
Cisco Systems🇺🇸NASDAQ | CSCO | $119.67+1.13% | Networking | T2 | $15.8BQ3 FY26 Revenue | |
MACOM Technology🇺🇸NASDAQ | MTSI | $400.67-2.20% | Networking | T2 | Optical specialtyFocus | |
Semtech🇺🇸NASDAQ | SMTC | $157.25-4.38% | Networking | T2 | Optical specialtyFocus | |
ASML🇪🇺Euronext / NASDAQ | ASML | $1,598-2.11% | Semis | T1 | €8.8BQ1 2026 Net Sales | |
TSMC🇹🇼NYSE (ADR) | TSM | $422.73+2.52% | Semis | T1 | $35.89BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Lam Research🇺🇸NASDAQ | LRCX | $318.93-1.16% | Semis | T1 | Etch/DepositionFocus | |
Applied Materials🇺🇸NASDAQ | AMAT | $448.34-1.44% | Semis | T1 | Diversified semicapFocus | |
KLA Corp🇺🇸NASDAQ | KLAC | $1,957-2.69% | Semis | T1 | Process controlFocus | |
Tokyo Electron🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 8035.T | ¥51,420-1.46% | Semis | T1 | ¥2,443.5BFY2026 Net Sales | |
Disco Corp🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 6146.T | ¥66,910-4.11% | Semis | T1 | ¥393.3BFY2025 Revenue | |
Lasertec🇯🇵TSE / OTC | 6920.T | ¥41,680-3.11% | Semis | T2 | ¥251.5BFY25 Revenue | |
GlobalFoundries🇺🇸NASDAQ | GFS | $81.06-9.89% | Semis | T3 | Mature nodesFocus | |
UMC🇹🇼NYSE | UMC | $22.22+5.41% | Semis | T3 | Mature nodesFocus | |
Cadence Design Systems🇺🇸NASDAQ | CDNS | $374.05-2.02% | EDA | T1 | 12–15% steadyGrowth | |
Synopsys🇺🇸NASDAQ | SNPS | $525.92-1.62% | EDA | T1 | AcquiredAnsys | |
Siemens EDA🇪🇺XETRA | SIE.DE | €274.05+0.55% | EDA | T2 | EDA within SiemensFocus | |
IREN Limited🇺🇸NASDAQ | IREN | $67.84+13.48% | HPC Pivots | T1 | $9.7BMicrosoft Contract | |
Cipher Mining🇺🇸NASDAQ | CIFR | $25.14+9.19% | HPC Pivots | T1 | $5.5BAWS Lease | |
Core Scientific🇺🇸NASDAQ | CORZ | $27.18+3.07% | HPC Pivots | T2 | CoreWeave acqPending Deal | |
TeraWulf🇺🇸NASDAQ | WULF | $26.73+6.16% | HPC Pivots | T2 | Lake Mariner hostCore42 | |
Hut 8🇺🇸NASDAQ | HUT | $117.60+4.50% | HPC Pivots | T2 | American BitcoinSpinoff | |
Applied Digital🇺🇸NASDAQ | APLD | $48.97+8.48% | HPC Pivots | T2 | CoreWeave coloPolaris | |
Marathon Digital🇺🇸NASDAQ | MARA | $14.31+0.21% | HPC Pivots | T3 | Mining betaStatus | |
Riot Platforms🇺🇸NASDAQ | RIOT | $26.94+3.30% | HPC Pivots | T3 | Mining betaStatus | |
CleanSpark🇺🇸NASDAQ | CLSK | $18.03+5.25% | HPC Pivots | T3 | Mining betaStatus | |
Bitfarms🇺🇸NASDAQ | BITF | $1.98-52.97% | HPC Pivots | T3 | Mining betaStatus | |
Equinix🇺🇸NASDAQ | EQIX | $1,070-0.69% | DC REITs | T1 | $2.444BQ1 2026 Revenue | |
Digital Realty🇺🇸NYSE | DLR | $191.71-1.01% | DC REITs | T1 | Hyperscale + inferencingFocus | |
NEXTDC🌐ASX | NXT.AX | 15.20+6.89% | DC REITs | T1 | A$350.2MFY25 Revenue | |
GDS Holdings🇨🇳NASDAQ / HKEX | GDS | $33.90-0.28% | DC REITs | T2 | RMB 11.43BFY2025 Revenue | |
VNET Group🇨🇳NASDAQ | VNET | $10.71+7.96% | DC REITs | T2 | RMB 978.1MQ4 Wholesale IDC Rev | |
Goodman Group🌐ASX / OTC | GMG.AX | 31.13+3.77% | DC REITs | T1 | A$12.4BWIP (Sep 2025) | |
Iron Mountain🇺🇸NYSE | IRM | $127.01-1.08% | DC REITs | T3 | DC + storageFocus | |
American Tower🇺🇸NYSE | AMT | $184.98+0.02% | DC REITs | T3 | Towers + DCFocus | |
Keppel DC REIT🌐SGX | AJBU | 2.28+0.44% | DC REITs | T3 | Asia DCFocus | |
Mapletree Industrial Trust🌐SGX | ME8U | 1.95+0.52% | DC REITs | T3 | Asia DCFocus | |
Linde🇺🇸NYSE | LIN | $507.87-1.38% | Site Infra | T2 | Fab + DC gasesFocus | |
Air Products🇺🇸NYSE | APD | $285.73-1.34% | Site Infra | T2 | Fab + DC gasesFocus | |
Air Liquide🇪🇺Euronext | AI.PA | €182.94+0.54% | Site Infra | T2 | Fab + DC gasesFocus | |
Nippon Sanso🇯🇵TSE | 4091.T | ¥6,402+1.80% | Site Infra | T2 | Fab gasesFocus | |
Watts Water🇺🇸NYSE | WTS | $314.80+0.99% | Site Infra | T3 | DC waterFocus | |
Mueller Industries🇺🇸NYSE | MLI | $135.79-1.96% | Site Infra | T3 | DC copperFocus | |
Tetra Tech🇺🇸NASDAQ | TTEK | $27.92+0.69% | Site Infra | T3 | DC site engineeringFocus | |
Jacobs Solutions🇺🇸NYSE | J | $115.90+0.04% | Site Infra | T3 | DC site engineeringFocus | |
AECOM🇺🇸NYSE | ACM | $71.66-1.12% | Site Infra | T3 | DC site engineeringFocus | |
Generac🇺🇸NYSE | GNRC | $280.53+2.08% | Backup | T2 | Gensets + shadow gridFocus | |
Cummins🇺🇸NYSE | CMI | $667.85-0.13% | Backup | T2 | Diesel/gas gensetsFocus | |
Caterpillar🇺🇸NYSE | CAT | $909.93+0.15% | Backup | T2 | Diesel/gas gensetsFocus | |
Atlas Copco🇪🇺OMX | ATCO-A | 179.85+1.78% | Backup | T2 | Backup systemsFocus | |
Bloom Energy🇺🇸NYSE | BE | $293.80-2.84% | Backup | T2 | Solid-oxide FCTech | |
Plug Power🇺🇸NASDAQ | PLUG | $4.14+7.81% | Backup | T3 | HydrogenFocus | |
Ballard Power🇺🇸NASDAQ | BLDP | $6.09+2.44% | Backup | T3 | HydrogenFocus | |
CoreWeave🇺🇸NASDAQ | CRWV | $104.29-1.51% | Private | T1 | Mar 2025IPO | |
OpenAI🇺🇸Private | OpenAI | Private | Private | T1 | Q4 2026IPO Speculated | |
Anthropic🇺🇸Private | Anthropic | Private | Private | T1 | Amazon, GoogleInvestors | |
xAI🇺🇸Private | xAI | Private | Private | T1 | 200k GPUsColossus | |
Lambda🇺🇸Private | Lambda | Private | Private | T2 | NeocloudType | |
Crusoe Energy🇺🇸Private | Crusoe | Private | Private | T2 | Stargate AbileneAnchor | |
Vantage Data Centers🇺🇸Private | Vantage | Private | Private | T2 | DC developerType | |
AirTrunk🌐Private | AirTrunk | Private | Private | T2 | BlackstoneOwner | |
Stack Infrastructure🇺🇸Private | Stack | Private | Private | T2 | Blue OwlBacker |
Vertiv$319.78-1.28%
NYSE · 🇺🇸 US
Tier 1Stage 1
The clearest pure-play in the entire AI infra stack. Q1 2026 backlog $12.45B (+80.8% YoY), Q4 2025 print at $15.0B with 2.9x book-to-bill.
Key Metrics
Q1 2026 Revenue
$2.65B
Adj EPS Growth
+83% YoY
Backlog
$12.45B
+80.8% YoY; Q4 2025 $15.0B
Book-to-Bill (TTM)
2.9x
Adj Op Margin
20.8%
FY26 Net Sales Guide
$13.5–14.0B
FY26 Adj EPS Growth
+42–45%
Highlights
- Clearest pure-play in the entire AI infra stack
- TTM orders +81%
Stage 1 · Core Basket
Highest conviction, deepest moats
Tail-Risk Register
What Would Break the Thesis
Hyperscaler 2027 Capex Deceleration
If AI monetization disappoints, capex growth could stall. Meta FCF projected to fall ~90% YoY in 2026 per Barclays. The framework relies on continued capex growth or maintenance.
China/Taiwan Geopolitics
A Taiwan Strait incident or US semiconductor export licensing shock would force a 50% trim of TSM, ASML, Hynix and Innolight/Eoptolink positions.
Algorithmic Efficiency Shocks
DeepSeek-style compression of GPU/power demand per token. Q1 2026 results show efficiency expanding use cases (Jevons paradox), but the narrative remains active.
Regulatory & Grid Friction
FERC behind-the-meter rulings (forced AWS-Talen restructuring), nuclear permitting timelines, grid interconnection queues past 2030.
Stargate Slippage
Abilene 600 MW expansion was cancelled; JV structure remains in flux. Bilateral deals are doing the actual work — site selection and power timing matter more than press releases.
Book-to-Bill Inflection
Sub-1.0x book-to-bill at any of VRT, ETN, GEV, ANET, NVT for two consecutive quarters would mark cycle turn.
Triggers That Would Force Position Changes
[1]Single hyperscaler Q capex *cut* (not deceleration) — trim Stage 1
[2]Sustained HBM ASP decline >10% QoQ — trim MU + Hynix
[3]TSMC capex reduction — invalidates Stage 1/2 semicap exposure
[4]Sub-1.0x book-to-bill 2 quarters at VRT/ETN/GEV/ANET/NVT — cycle turn